Cascatas de incertezas, impactos climáticos perigosos e negociações internacionais sobre mudança de clima global - um modelo exploratório / Cascatas de Incertezas, Impactos Climáticos Perigosos e Negociações Internacionais sobre Mudança de Clima Global : Um Modelo Exploratório

AUTOR(ES)
FONTE

IBICT - Instituto Brasileiro de Informação em Ciência e Tecnologia

DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

19/06/2006

RESUMO

The problem of the global climate change only can to be solved through a long term process of international political coordination which the principal actors are the governments of the National States. The Kyoto Protocol is the first international agreement to control the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the others rounds of negotiations will happen through this century producing new deals with the same goal. A number of factors related of a complex way, have influenced and will influence the results of these future agreements. Among the principal factors, are the uncertainties about the physical, biological, ecological, economical and poltical aspects of the global climate change problem. The goal of this work was to contruct a integrated assessment model, that show in a transparent way some the majors elements and links of the uncertainties cascade that exist in the problem of the climate change, and their influence on the results on that negotiations. The model permit us to make exploratory simulations about the effects of the evolution that uncertainties in the results of the sequence of negotiations after the Kyoto Protocol. The model represent in a stylized way important elements that participate in the structure of collective decision making about abatement of GHG emissions and in some aspects is more realistic that several existent models on decision making about climate change. It is composed of one module that represent the climate system, one module that represent the national economies, one module that represent the governmental decision makers and one module that represent the negotiations about reductions of GHG emissions. The climate model include a carbon cycle and an energetic balance simple models with white noise in the radiative forcing to repesent the natural climate variability. The economic models include abrupt changes in the damages functions. The The decision makers are represented as agents that have economical development plans for their countries and have models of the climate change and their national economies. These models permit to each one make projections on future global warming, economical growth, emissions and the climate impacts on each territory. Thus each agent can estimate the impact of the global warming on his development plan under a action of abatement of emissions. These analysis are made with the aid of a antecipation horizon that depends of the uncertainty levels in the epoch which the projections are made. We represented some of majors uncertainties in the climate science and economic analysis on the problem through probabilities distributions of certain key parameters, such that the climate sensibility and the ocean thermal diffusivity, which can to vary in time. There is a number of possible evolution scenarios for these uncertainties, but only a few with important intuitive means. We take only these more important scenarios to simulation. A negotiation on reduction quotas of emissions is represented as a non-cooperative game and the agreement between countries is a Nash equilibrium of the game. Each government before to negotiate choose his strategies on how much abate emissions based on his projections. The game final result is influenced by the probabilities distributions that represent the uncertainties in the epoch of the negotiations. Some distributions can reveal high probabilities for dangerous climate impacts in their economies, influencing strongly the choices of emission abatements and the results of negotiations. The cycle of projection-analysisnegotiation can to repeat many times defining a sequence of agreements and then a emission trajectory, and as consequence a global warming and distributions of regional impacts. The comparison of final trajectories of warming and impacts for each negotiations sequence help us to understand the possible evolutions of future negotiations and his role in the climate change problem.

ASSUNTO(S)

cascades of uncertainties cascatas de incertezas clima global. climate impacts global climate. impactos climáticos international negotiations of global climate change negociação internacional sobre mudança de clima global

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