Estudo de parâmetros epidemiológicos através de modelamento matemático: aspectos estacionários, espaciais e temporais. / The study of epidemiological parameters through mathematical modelling: stationary, spatial and temporal features.

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2001

RESUMO

We have studied, based on mathematical modelling, stationary, spatial and temporal features related to the propagation and control of directly transmitted infectious diseases through person-to-person contact. We have developed deterministic mathematical models founded on the mass-action principle of Epidemiology, taking into account the symmetry of contacts among susceptible and infectious individuals. Such symmetry enabled us to estimate the potentially infective per capita contact rate and, therefore, the force of infection and the possible effects of different vaccination programmes. The steady state modelling has been based on rubella serological data of a non-immunized population (Azevedo Neto 1992) and we have analysed three different vaccination schemes against rubella in the following age intervals: from 1 to 2 years of age, from 7 to 8 years of age, and from 14 to 15 years of age. The serological data variability has been considered in the estimation of the statistical uncertainty of the average age at infection by means of the Monte Carlo method and we have applied this methodology to varicella and hepatitis A data. The spatial feature in a SIR model has been studied with the analysis of the influence of the interaction range among individuals. We have also studied the force of infection as a function of age and time and we have analysed, in a qualitative way, different situations in the time evolution of an infectious disease.

ASSUNTO(S)

hepatite a rubéola epidemic model modelo epidêmico modelo matemático determinístico deterministic model rubella varicella hepatitis a varicela

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