Mensuração do risco de um projeto de base imobiliária a partir do cash flow at risk

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

2007

RESUMO

The Real Estate sector approaches itself more and more of the capital market because of its characteristic of intensive capital demand. Because of the longest maturation period of the Real Estate developments there are some uncertainties around the feasibilities results of the original projects. In this sense this dissertation aims to present the results generated by the Cash Flow at Risk metric. The CFaR is a variation of the traditional VaR, largely used at the capital market. This metric is used in this dissertation to measure the probability of financial loss of one Real Estate Development based at the city of Balneário Camboriú. Thru the utilization of this metric the Real Estate developers will be allowed to show to the potential investors not only the traditional results generated by the feasibility analysis such as NPV, IRR, ROA, EVA and Payback but they will be also able to measure the risk of financial losses of the projects. Consequently they can manage these risks at the duration of the projects. More than that they could measure the risks of financial loss of their investors and consequently manage these risks during the projects life. Meaning theyll be able to check the variability of the project originally viable. The projects original indicators were: IRR: 5,75% a.m.; Payback: 30th month; NPV: R$ 6.099.411,00; Rentability rate (B/C): 30,42% and CFaR in statistical terms of 96,9%, around R$ 449 thousand, or nearby 7% of original NPV.

ASSUNTO(S)

fluxo de caixa administração de risco administracao incorporação imobiliária

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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