Short-term absence from industry: III The inference of `proneness' and a search for causes

AUTOR(ES)

Froggatt, P.

RESUMO

Froggatt, P. (1970).Brit. J. industr. Med.,27, 297-312. Short-term absence from industry. III. The inference of `proneness' and a search for causes. The abilities of five hypotheses (`chance', `proneness', and three of `true contagion' - as defined in the text) to explain the distributions of one-day and two-day absences among groups of male and female industrial personnel and clerks in government service are examined by curve-fitting and correlation methods. The five hypotheses generate (in order) the Poisson, negative binomial, Neyman type A, Short, and Hermite (two-parameter form) distributions which are fitted to the data using maximum-likelihood estimates. The conclusion is drawn that `proneness', i.e., a stable `liability', compounded from several though unquantifiable factors, and constant for each individual over the period of the study, is markedly successful in explaining the data. It is emphasized that some of the other hypotheses under test cannot be unequivocably rejected; and there is in theory an infinite number, still unformulated or untested, which may be acceptable or even fit the data better.

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