Simulação e inteligencia arficial aplicadas ao estudo da dinamica populacional do bicudo do algodoeiro na região de Campinas/SP

AUTOR(ES)
DATA DE PUBLICAÇÃO

1994

RESUMO

The object of the present thesis was to create a simulator in order to analyse the population dynamics of the cotton boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis, interacting simulation systems and artificial intelligence techniques. A computer program capable of elucidating and make good interpretation to monitoring data collected in cotton fields subjected to Insect Pest Management (IPM) Programs was developed also. In this way it would be possible to detennine the critical moments or periods in which the pest can reach the Economic Threshold and Economic Injury Levels. Such a program could also indicate what type of action can be undertaken to reduce the population of this pest insect, such as the usage of selective chemical insecticides or the liberation of Braconid parasites. The simulator developed in this study has two systems: The Brazilian insect-plant-environrnent system (represented by main system) coupled to the expert system, that is responsable to start selective pesticides uses, oriented by the Insect Pest Management Programo The environmental biotic factors are presented in the main system by means of three dynamic mathematical models (cohort type), containing detailed informations about the biological components (the host plant, the pest insect and the parasite), as well as the life cycle of each. The effects of climatic conditions on pest and plant behavior were analysed utilizing, as a parameter, the maximum and minimum daily temperatures applied to the Thermal Constant concept. Daily precipitations generated randomily were utilized to evaluate the effect of rainfalllevels. The expert system is coupled to the main one and is prepared to start operations when the Economic Threshold is reached. The inference machine of the expert system is based on the forward chaining method and the decision is direcdy dependent on the several environrnental informations (biotic and non-biotic). The main and expert systems are connected one to another by means of a "blackboard". The questions asked by the expert system are answered by the main system. The type of decision taken by the first is simultaneously transmitted to the second, and the simulations goes on. This simulator was programmes in C-language in a SUN-OS workstation (UNIX environrnent)

ASSUNTO(S)

inteligencia artificial gorgulho do algodão - metodos de simulação

ACESSO AO ARTIGO

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